Justice

Prison population projections indicate sustained growth, with the population projected to rise to 98,000–103,600 by March 2030. At the same time, MoJ publications cite an operational capacity figure of 89,334 (late Nov 2025), highlighting the ongoing capacity constraint the system is planning around.

Safety in custody data shows assaults continuing to rise. In the 12 months to June 2025, the assault rate was 361 assaults per 1,000 prisoners (31,268 assaults), and assaults on staff reached 10,477; a new peak rate of 121 per 1,000 prisoners. These trends intensify the need for robust site security, consistent regimes, and secure operational processes.

Illicit supply routes are becoming more sophisticated. MoJ data reported 1,712 drone incidents across prisons in England and Wales between April 2024 and March 2025, a 43% increase year-on-year; driving investment in countermeasures and broader prison security improvements.

Demand pressure remains high across the courts. Official statistics show the Crown Court open caseload rising to a series peak of 79,619 (to end of September 2025). Parliamentary scrutiny has also highlighted the scale and impact of the Crown Court backlog, citing 73,105 open cases at the end of September 2024 and warning of severe consequences for victims, witnesses and defendants.

As estates age and operational models evolve, justice organisations must balance safety and decency with tight resources, while adapting facilities for modern threats and compliance. Wider system reviews have raised concerns about capacity constraints, safety risks and the cost of maintaining and improving the prison estate.